Victoria has more than a 40 percent likelihood of a shortfall in energy supply in the coming summer, significantly higher than that of South Australia, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator.
AEMO estimates the likelihoold of an energy shortfall in Victoria at between 39 percent and 43 percent, while that of South Australia – without the Government’s Energy Plan – is between 26 and 33 percent.
The market operator says the average shortfall projected in South Australia is likely to be between 81MW and 97MW, but could reach 243MW. If such a blackout were to occur, it would likely last between two and four hours.
SA is on a December 1 deadline, both to install the 100 MW battery being built by Tesla but also to install nine temporary diesel-gas turbines, which will provide up to 275 MW of power to prevent load sharing blackouts.
AEMO chief executive Audrey Zibelman has told the Financial Review she is confident the grid will be able to cope with extreme temperatures this coming summer. The regulator has been working on a number of reforms which would create a 100 MW “bugger” which would function as a strategic reserve.
AEMO is also conducting an audit of the 20 coal fired power stations still operating in Australia.